A Recession Doesn’t Equal a Housing Crisis
People are speculating about a future recession everywhere you turn. And if you're thinking about buying or selling a home, this might make you reevaluate your decision. In order to allay your concerns, experts predict that if a recession does occur, it will be light and brief. As the Federal Reserve stated during their meeting in March:
“. . . the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”
Despite the possibility of a recession, it won't be as severe as the 2008 housing market catastrophe. We must keep in mind that a housing crisis is not usually the result of a recession.
Let's examine historical data on what occurred in real estate during prior recessions to see if that's the case. So that you are aware of why you shouldn't be concerned about what a recession would mean for the current home market.
Falling housing costs are not a sign of a recession.
It helps to look at historical data to demonstrate that home prices don't always decrease during recessions. Home prices increased in four of the most recent six recessions, as shown in the graph below, which examines downturns dating all the way back to 1980. Therefore, historically speaking, home values don't necessarily decrease when the economy weakens.
The majority of individuals believe that the 2008 housing crisis, which is shown by the greater of the two red bands in the graph above, will repeat itself during the next recession. But because of different market fundamentals than in 2008, the housing market today is not about to fall. The abundance of homes for sale at the time that distressed properties flooded the market was one of the main factors that contributed to price declines. Since there aren't many houses on the market right now, home values may slightly increase or decrease in some places, but a crash isn't likely.
Mortgage rates will decline during a recession.
Falling mortgage rates are what a recession actually implies for the property industry. According to the graph below, historically, mortgage rates fell whenever the economy slowed down.
According to Bankrate, mortgage rates normally decrease in a down economy.
“During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.”
Mortgage rates have been particularly erratic this year as a result of the rising inflation. The affordability of buying a home has been impacted by the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which has been ranging between about 6 and 7 percent.
The days of mortgage rates falling to 3% are over, but history teaches us that they might do so if there is a recession.
To sum up
There's no need to worry about what a recession will do to the property market. Experts predict a modest and brief recession if it occurs, and history demonstrates that it also means lower mortgage rates.